Top 10 PV module suppliers in 2022 shipped 245GW - Solar News (2023)

2022 was a yr of large development in PV module manufacturing, shipments and installations. At the same time as the ultimate numbers are counted now, it’s clear that general shipments have been nicely above 300GWp-dc.

The highest 10 module suppliers shipped a large 245GW, greater than 75% of worldwide provide, with the highest 4 every delivery greater than 40GW.

This text reveals the highest 10 module suppliers of 2022 and discusses what to anticipate from every of them throughout 2023.

The highest 10 module suppliers of 2022

Module shipments are outlined as own-branded provide and exclude each in-house OEM manufacturing (for different corporations’ shipments) or contracted use of module manufacturing traces. The highest 10 for 2022 principally produced modules for direct gross sales; small volumes have been executed as OEM provide and are excluded. Additionally, a few of the corporations had cargo volumes above module manufacturing ranges, by means of the usage of third-party OEM producers; these volumes are included in cargo numbers. (Double-counting of module provide is likely one of the trade’s flaws at year-end, sometimes seen in Chinese language-compiled knowledge now.)

The highest 10 module suppliers function a lot of the family names in PV in the present day, with maybe only one shock to many outdoors China and Europe.

Top 10 PV module suppliers in 2022 shipped 245GW - Solar News (1)

There aren’t any surprises within the high 4. Every of those corporations shipped greater than 40GW of own-branded modules in 2022, ranges that weren’t on anybody’s radar simply a few years in the past earlier than internet zero, power safety and a conflict in Ukraine turned the PV trade into the most well liked power ticket on the town.

Collectively, the highest 10 shipped 245GW in 2022, simply over 75% of worldwide shipments for the yr. Furthermore, the following grouping of ten (11-20 in cargo rankings) shipped about 37GW; the following 10 (21-30) an extra 21GW; the following group (31-40) 9GW. In reality, even these ranked 41-50 managed to ship nearly 5GW. The remaining circa 50 corporations within the sector contributed about 10GW in complete shipments.

Consolidation? You should be joking!

The geographic break up of the highest 10 is basically the story of the PV trade in 2022. Of the 245GW shipped by the highest 10, over 55% went to China and Europe mixed, highlighting the truth that these two areas have been the locations to be final yr when it comes to promoting modules.

Simply 8% of the top-10’s provide ended up within the US market. And of this cumulative quantity, First Photo voltaic accounted for about 40%. Who would wish to be a module purchaser within the US in the present day?

I recall an article I wrote on PV Tech again in 2012, in the beginning of AD/CVD and the US searching for methods to exclude Chinese language-produced cells and modules: Sunset on the union as PV cells come from Taiwan. This line jumped out at me: “For instance, if the US was forecast to comprise >50% of worldwide PV demand, this impediment could be important. If the US market is pegged at 10% of worldwide demand, then the influence is clearly much less pronounced.”

Has something actually modified within the final decade?

The US and India don’t share many widespread points, however till now every has expended an terrible lot of manpower on attempting to exclude Chinese language imports and stimulate home content material.

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The brand new entrant within the high 10 rankings for 2022 is DMEGC Photo voltaic, a enterprise unit inside the Chinese language firm Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics. This firm has been within the PV trade for over 10 years, however has shot up the rankings previously 24 months. Greater than three-quarters of DMEGC’s shipments in 2022 have been to Europe, a considerably anomaly for a Chinese language PV firm, however reflecting DMEGC’s give attention to Europe paying off large in 2022 as European demand exploded.

Let’s now undergo the opposite 9 PV module suppliers within the high 10 rating desk for 2022.

Most likely the corporate with probably the most important good points in 2022 was JinkoSolar. The market chief for a few years till LONGi gained the highest spot, Jinko totally reset its technique on the finish of 2021, allocating a staggering US$3 billion into full value-chain (ingot to module) capex for 2022.

Capex is likely one of the most necessary main indicators six to 18 months out. On this regard, I count on Jinko to regain main module provider place throughout 2023, with the belief that massive volumes will as soon as once more ship to the US utilizing non-Chinese language produced polysilicon and with ingot-to-module manufacturing in Southeast Asia principally. The choice additionally to be first key mover on n-type TOPCon is now seeking to be a prudent step as others rush to have a me-too providing, not in contrast to the large swing from p-type multi to mono PERC just a few years again that was pushed by Jinko and JA Photo voltaic.

LONGi, whereas nonetheless in pole place in 2022, had much less of an influence in comparison with earlier years, however did make important progress in creating a world model, and staffing native workplaces with hires from the trade. There isn’t a longer an enormous hole between LONGi’s shipments and the opposite three of the highest 4. That is partly as a consequence of a larger diploma of warning at LONGi in transferring from p-type to n-type; p-mono has been the corporate’s one key manufacturing speciality for the reason that unique LONGi acquired cell/module producer LERRI nearly ten years in the past. Nonetheless, LONGi continues to be the trade’s main wafer producer/provider and is the one high Chinese language participant that may fall again to wafer revenues/margins if the module enterprise softens.

Trina Photo voltaic and JA Photo voltaic look related in lots of regards and will simply be buying and selling rating positions for years to return. Whereas having marginally decrease cargo volumes in 2022, JA Photo voltaic does enter 2023 with just a few key benefits: entry to the US market, full value-chain in-house n-type manufacturing as a precedence and present choices in Southeast Asia to fall again on ought to commerce (import) points in different areas (most notably Europe) come into impact. Trina – like JA Photo voltaic and Jinko – can be totally embracing TOPCon know-how, and now has robust rooftop and ground-mount cargo volumes, a serious change to the corporate 10 years in the past that was primarily multi and ground-mount.

CSI Photo voltaic (nonetheless a part of Canadian Photo voltaic till the carve-out IPO in China is finalised) has fallen again from the highest 4 in recent times. That is due partly to the time taken to finish the China IPO and having to lastly name time on a p-multi technique that appeared considerably of a raffle when everybody else was transferring fully to mono PERC. Additionally, there was a time and day when having twin upstream and downstream enterprise models inside the one entity was a good suggestion. These instances have handed and the talent units for every to be worthwhile and market-leading are vastly completely different. 2023 will possible be CSI’s reset yr and it could be in 2024 {that a} ‘new’ manufacturing chief emerges, again up in volumes with the present high 4.

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Risen Vitality continues to punch above its weight and is once more having robust worldwide gross sales success. However for the primary time, Risen’s 2023 is all about know-how. Whereas there are dozens of recent entrants looking for to make heterojunction a multi-GW actuality, Risen is the one module provider within the high 10 that has wager large on heterojunction. If all goes to plan with the brand new fab, the corporate will actually have a differentiated providing in comparison with the foremost module suppliers in the present day. However it is going to be a while but earlier than that is recognized and possibly not till nicely into 2024 when the true price construction turns into clear. If Risen fails, then a few of the processing options of heterojunction could go on maintain till a hybrid successor to TOPCon emerges in coming years.

Astronergy is in fact the model identify of Chint Group’s PV module enterprise unit and has been within the mixture of high 20 module suppliers for over a decade. Prior to now few years, module cargo volumes have grown considerably, with provide to the home China market dominating 2022 volumes. Europe was the opposite key market final yr for Astronergy, a area wherein the corporate has at all times been robust. One other TOPCon proponent for 2023, the one remaining problem is establishing robust non-China manufacturing and traceability – one thing that’s true for many Chinese language corporations within the PV trade in the present day.

In comparison with all different corporations within the top10 checklist, First Photo voltaic couldn’t be extra differentiated. In headquarters location (US), know-how (thin-film), low debt ranges and (most necessary in the present day) a traceability/ESG providing that’s fairly merely past worth. The corporate may have shipped twice its volumes (purely to US initiatives) in 2022 had there been out there fab capability. Over the previous 20 years, First Photo voltaic has needed to make judgement calls on know-how (bear in mind the CIGS menace?), new fab capex, module format dimension, downstream participation and JVs to entry higher abroad markets like Japan and even China. Briefly, the place the corporate is in the beginning of 2023 is like seeing all the celebrities come into alignment, coupled with a quickly altering political panorama that even probably the most ardent First Photo voltaic lobbyists couldn’t have imagined would occur so shortly.

Hanwha Options’ Q CELLS module model (enterprise unit) is the opposite non-Chinese language entity within the high 10, headquartered in South Korea. Having been looking for a differentiated place within the sector for a lot of the previous half dozen years, the shift globally to seek out non-Chinese language producers (from a traceability perspective) has come on the good time for Hanwha Options. It isn’t inconceivable additionally that the legacy polysilicon plant in Korea may very well be introduced again to life if it seems that non-Chinese language polysilicon is dramatically under-supplied within the subsequent two to a few years. However it’s the US market that beckons for Hanwha, a a lot sought prize for a lot of Korean corporations over time. Whereas earlier than Q CELLS was centered on the US rooftop section, shifting to multi-GW of module provide to the utility sector (with Hanwha Group undertaking investments) may see a doubling of module shipments in simply two years.

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How large is the PV trade going to be in 2023?

That is now the important thing metric for all aspiring PV market analysts. There are a number of methods to estimate the scale of the PV sector this yr.

One may look purely at polysilicon anticipated to be produced and do a easy g/W calculation, whereas factoring in stock ranges at year-end. Some could attempt to go all over the world and add anticipated ‘demand’ from all of the nations and add this up, however that is now a dreadful strategy to forecast the sector. Or you would take a look at the highest 10 suppliers’ steering for the yr and assume they’ll make up about 80% of provide in the course of the yr.

polysilicon manufacturing and including First Photo voltaic’s anticipated shipments for 2023, one arrives at about 450GW. Trying on the high 4 and assuming their 30% year-on-year cargo development is mirrored on common by the opposite six high 10 gamers and also you get to about 420GW. Nonetheless you get there, the primary digit is a ‘4’. If pushed, I’d throw out 440GW as a working complete at this level, with maybe a ±5% error certain. About 20% or extra of this can be TOPCon modules. And yet one more stat that may find yourself prophetic: Europe consumes circa 100GW of modules, with over 90% made fully inside China: the final yr this may very well be attainable as EU laws goes reside or the push to Turkey for delivery into Europe strikes to a different degree come 2024.

Pricing by means of the worth chain is already altering in a method not seen earlier than. There’s a worth for elements made in China, and a worth for these outdoors. Areas (or international shopping for corporates) which are proud of full made-in-China product are actually seeing module pricing nicely under that just a few months in the past. These demanding full non-China traceability will possible see pricing going up and there’s no finish to a power undersupply on this a part of the market. The much less dangerous your supply-chain traceability, the extra scope it’s important to bump up costs.

Over the following few months, PV Tech can be internet hosting its PV CellTech occasion in Berlin (14-15 March 2023) and our US version of PV ModuleTech (once more in Napa, on 6-7 June 2023). Within the coming weeks, our quarterly editions of the PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report and the PV ModuleTech Bankability Quarterly report can be launched. Every of those has PV developments and forecasting galore, so please comply with any of the hyperlinks on the occasions or studies to discover ways to get entangled extra with our analysis crew at PV Tech.

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